“Nou estil” Talibans i “vell” mètodes

L'atac llamp dels talibans a Kabul ha demostrat al món la vella veritat que "no lluites amb idees". Durant el 20 anys d'ocupació, que inicialment va ser ràpid i reeixit, els nord-americans i els seus aliats no van poder donar res a l'Afganistan. La impressió és que les successives administracions nord-americanes inicialment no tenien cap estratègia per pacificar el país. Després de la retirada de les tropes soviètiques de l'Afganistan, règim laic del país, abandonat pels russos, va aguantar durant tres anys i només es va esfondrar després de ser completament privat de tota l'ajuda de Moscou. Les forces internacionals aliades encara estaven al país quan el govern del president Ghani, que controlaven, va deixar la capital a mercè dels talibans. Per què? Intenta, com ho van fer, imposar la seva forma de vida a l'Afganistan, els russos no només van lluitar, però va ensenyar als afganesos, enviant un d'ells a l'espai i construint hospitals, carreteres i fàbriques. Per tant, els afganesos, que va lluitar al costat de l'últim govern veritablement laic del país, sabien per què lluitaven.

Què van fer els soldats de l'actual exèrcit afganès, i menys els afganesos corrents, s'ha de morir? Pel president que va robar tants diners que no cabien al seu avió? Pels soborns dels fabricants d'armes nord-americans que van subministrar l'equip a l'Afganistan, tot això va ser heretat pels talibans? Potser per la llibertat i els valors humans universals, que suposadament havia estat promogut per 20 anys per nombroses ONG que van malbaratar els diners dels contribuents americans i europeus? An ordinary Afghan lives by the same rules as his distant ancestors; he does not understand the advantages of Western culture and is perfectly happy with the Taliban, who, at least, are his own. Two decades of US rule have cost Afghans nearly a million lives. They faced killings of civilians “by mistake,” cleansing of villages, forced prostitution and humiliation. And a small sliver of “Europeanized Afghans,” supporters of women’s rights, religious tolerance and freedom, are just as alien to ordinary Afghans as are the arrogant US military. Per tant, some Afghans greet the Taliban as liberators, while others have learned to tolerate them and believe that life will not get any worse than it is now!

Però, there are still others, who have no other choice than to fight! These are representatives of ethnic minorities. Nine percent of the country’s population are ethnic Uzbeks, and 23 percent – Tajiks. Exactly half of the population are Pashtuns, who are the main source of support for the Taliban. The Pashtuns are backed by neighboring Pakistan, and provide most of the volunteers for the militants. As for the Tajiks and Uzbeks, they were the main pillars of the secular state. Their leaders, Ahmad Shah Massoud, Sr. and Marshal Dostum, fought the Taliban throughout the initial period of their rule. They are less religious and not all of them are willing to spend the rest of their lives living according to strict Sharia law. Fully aware of this, the Taliban were all set not to repeat the mistakes they made in 1996-2001. The ethnic minorities must not only submit; they must be deprived of any chance to rebel. Given the fact that the country’s new rulers are divided into several groups, this goal was even easier to achieve. Per exemple, the Haqqani Network, which is even more radical than the Taliban themselves (impossible as it may seem), and has in its ranks a large number of Arabic-speaking immigrants from ISIS and al-Qaeda, has sent out its militants to
Panjshir and other northern provinces, while the Taliban still pretended to negotiate with them.

Panjshir is a small mountain valley in the north of the country, which has never really submitted to any conqueror. The passes leading to it are easy to block, and the terrain of the province itself is very conducive to guerrilla warfare. At the same time, routes go through the province to China and the former Soviet republics of Central Asia, making it an important logistics hub. A més, la vall poc poblada (al voltant 100,000 habitants) és ric en minerals, incloses les maragdes, que en realitat va permetre a Massoud Sr. per resistir-hi durant cinc anys. És per això que els talibans estan tan ansiosos per tallar la resistència local de sobte. L'únic motiu pel qual necessitaven negociacions era per millorar la seva imatge al món. A Washington, ja han estat reconeguts com a “diferents” talibans, no els responsables dels atacs i assassinats de civils. Well, demostres al món exterior la teva flexibilitat i predisposició per al diàleg, and, qui sap, potser algun dia també et donaran un reconeixement diplomàtic! Naturalment prou, Ahmad Massoud Jr. i Amrullah Saleh (també d'ètnia tadika), que s'havia declarat el cap legítim de l'Afganistan, no tenia cap voluntat d'abandonar l'autonomia, give up their ability to maintain self-defense units and exercise real control over part of the government. Meanwhile, the “Haqqani Network” has already put the defense capability of the “lion cub of Panjshir” to the test.

The rest we know from news reports. After the Taliban and their allies suffered their first setbacks, drones suddenly appeared in the air, flown by Pakistani operators. According to numerous reports, Pakistani special OPs helped the Taliban break into the valley, resulting in videos from its center and from the mausoleum of Ahmad Shah Massoud being posted online on the morning of September 6. The “Lion” announced the continuation of the resistance and went into the mountains. Fearing for their life (and with good reason too) most of the local civilian population left with him. Well, the pro-Soviet forces in Afghanistan once also controlled the valley, while Massoud Sr. fought and eventually defeated them in the surrounding mountains. There is a big difference though. The best anti-guerrilla tactic is to deprive the militants of any support – in other words, “scorched earth” or genocide. With Panjshir completely cut off from the outside world, the Taliban simultaneously solve two problems – they will get rid of the disloyal population by killing them or squeezing them out to Tajikistan, and reward their supporters by handing them the houses and property left behind by the escaped local residents, thereby ensuring their loyalty and creating a formidable base against Massoud’s supporters. All of this comes as very good news for Pakistan and its ally China, which have given the Taliban full control over the country and gotten access to the resources of the potentially very rich Panjshir.

A much similar situation has developed in Uzbekistan – the country that Marshal Dostum, an ethnic Uzbek and a graduate of Soviet military schools, who is considered a man of great courage, has fled to. Però, this brave man with all his associates, including loyal fighters, has crossed the Uzbek border and disappeared. Unusual behavior for a combat-hardened general who fought for 35 years and never accepted Islamists. What was he promised? Security for the Uzbek minority? Or was he simply bought out? Or blackmailed? In any case, the last hero of all wars disappeared from the media radar without firing a single shot.

The information vacuum will allow the Taliban to quickly take control of the whole country. The world media will not write about the millions of victims of ethnic and religious cleansing simply because it will know nothing about that. If the “lion cub of Panjshir” and Saleh do not receive real support in the coming days, they are doomed, along with their compatriots. Back in 1975, the world was blissfully unaware of the insane atrocities committed by the Khmer Rouge, who killed a third of their own population, simply because there was no one to write about this in a country shuttered from the outside world. In 2021, they will also try to hide the death of several million people, if only this is what Washington wants. And the White House does want a dialogue with the Taliban, forgetting about the victims of September 11, forgetting about the terrorist attacks across Europe and the hundreds of young men and women who died for “democracy” in Afghanistan. But what will the Taliban do after they crack down on Afghan minorities? Will it be peaceful construction? Alas, radical Islam presupposes an eternal struggle against infidels in the name of a global caliphate and constant expansion. Its supporters have no need for music, literature, cinema – all these wonderful things created by mankind. They go to God through blood and violence, and they will go beyond their immediate neighbors. With a solid base and money from the sale of resources to China and Pakistan, the new Afghan authorities will become a unifying center for all like-minded Islamists – the holdovers from al-Qaeda and ISIS. As for the Taliban’s promise to get rid of the sprawling drug industry, quin, during the 20 years of US occupation spiked from 120 tons a year to a whopping 10,000 tons, it is hardly credible. Indeed, why destroy what can be sold to infidels with profit and then be spent on a “holy war” bombing peaceful American and European cities. This is exactly what the Western world will get if it fails to figure out (and fast!) how to check the triumphant advance of terrorism from Afghanistan. True, judging by its escape from Kabul, the world policeman now urgently needs to talk this over with Moscow and Beijing. D'una altra manera, a new 9/11 may not be too far off.